Working commercial model / 2031 steady state
What has to work
for US$25m.
Start in Pakistan. Add the UAE, then European country pilots. Test the distribution, contribution and production capacity needed for US$25 million in annual EBITDA.
Unquoted planning assumptions. No trading history, committed capacity or manufactured flavour range is implied.
Enable JavaScript to explore the model. The editable workbook is also available below.
Where contribution comes from.
After product cost, variable selling and marketing. Before group fixed costs.
The model, in plain sight.
Net brand revenue is after indirect taxes and trade rebates. Landed costs and variable selling are separate per-can inputs. The model does not calculate tax rates; relevant treatment must already be reflected in the inputs. Marketing is charged once as a percentage of net sales.
EBITDA = supplied cans × weighted contribution / can − fixed costs
Target cans = (US$25m + fixed costs) ÷ weighted contribution / can
Required cans assume the selected regional sales mix stays constant as volume grows. When weighted contribution is zero or negative, increasing volume cannot reach the target. A production constraint can also prevent the target even when unit economics are positive.
This is a steady-state operating test, not a complete cash model. It excludes capex, working-capital movements, cash taxes, financing, acquisitions and seasonality. The separate five-year workbook includes illustrative working capital, capex and funding.
Evidence still to collect.
All prices, costs, volumes, outlet counts and capacity are unquoted internal assumptions. These official references inform validation; they do not validate the commercial inputs.
- Pakistan FBR — Federal Excise Act register. Confirm the final product and transaction treatment before replacing assumed net proceeds.
- UAE FTA — EXTP013 sweetened-drinks excise model. Confirm composition, certification and net economics with the importer.
- European Commission — food information legislation. Add country-specific labelling, tax, deposit and distributor terms before each pilot.
References reviewed 2 November 2026. Forecast currency is USD; no live FX conversion is assumed. Recipe, can size, manufacturing specification and commercial availability remain unconfirmed.